Demographic Trends in Northeast Asia

Jan. 29 Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt

(Washington D.C.) January 29– Northeast Asia will experience large demographic changes in the next twenty years that will have implications for the economics, politics, and culture of regional countries.

In the 1970s when demographers discussed Asia, they talked about large population growth, but the Asian population explosion is long over. Northeast Asian demographers are now concerned with current and projected population declines as Japan, Russia, China, and South Korean women produce fewer children than is required for population replacement. Declines in population have been seen in Russia since the end of communism, while the population is just beginning to decline in Japan. South Korea will experience this trend in the next decade, with China following soon after. These declines will be coupled with a corresponding decrease in the population of working-age individuals and an increase in the percentage of elderly. These demographic changes have long-term impacts on each nation and the region, particularly from an economic standpoint.

China will soon experience a large increase in the number of people over the age of 65, as will South Korea and Japan. Unlike its neighbors, however, Dr. Eberstadt pointed out that the average Chinese citizen has a much lower income than a Japanese or South Korean, and China’s pension and medical insurance systems cover a very small percentage of the population. The elderly used to depend on their sons for support in their old age, but it is predicted that one third of Chinese women will have no sons by the year 2030. According to Dr. Eberstadt, China must begin considering how to support the elderly, and must also consider how the decrease of the working-age population will impact industry and the phenomenal economic growth rates that China has enjoyed."