Whether evolution or revolution it is important to recognize that the aftermath of an economic and investment bubble transitioning from levering to delevering, globalization to deglobalization and lax regulation to reregulation leads to an across-the-board rise in risk premiums, higher volatility and therefore lower asset prices for a majority of asset classes. The journey to a new stasis is a destructive one insofar as it affects previously assumed wealth.
What then does common sense tell us about future asset returns? Let’s revisit our previous conclusions on the developing environment for some clues. They include: delevering, deglobalization, reregulation leading to slow global growth, a heightened risk aversion, a distrust of conventional investment model portfolios, and a greater emphasis on surviving as opposed to thriving. If valid, then an investor or an investment committee would likely stress the bird in the hand – as opposed to the one in the bush; stable and secure income – as opposed to uncertain capital gains; a government-regulated utility model – as opposed to innovative yet risky venture capital investments. At current price levels, to cite one example, the current income from corporate bonds is higher and certainly more secure than the dividend income from stocks. A return to an era reminiscent of the first half of the 20th century is not unimaginable where stocks were viewed as subordinated income producers with yields exceeding their senior bond companions on the liability ladder.
PIMCO - Investment Outlook April 2009 Evolution or Revolution Bill Gross
Monday, April 20, 2009
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